2023-04-25
Insight refers to the ability to discover the nature of things and predict the future through information, appearances and experiences. Insights combined with domain-specific knowledge and methods form insights in different fields such as strategic insights, market insights, and technical insights. In our daily life, insight can help us get to the heart of the problem quickly, so as to eliminate misunderstandings, avoid unnecessary losses, and reduce management costs.
Insight is a collection of information acquisition abilities, analysis and judgment ability and imagination, which can be expressed in the form of rapid response from intuition, systematic and rigorous rational analysis, or a combination of the two.
Intuition is one of the two forms of insight, everyone in their own field of expertise can make intuitive judgments based on experience. Through intuition pattern matching, one can quickly identify potential targets, relevant clues, expected changes and typical actions. Intuition is not always accurate, and the most effective way to improve the accuracy of intuition is to constantly practice and summarize. Intuition does not apply to all scenarios, common scenarios that apply include time pressure, ambiguous goals, changing situations, and experienced participants.
Rational analysis is another form of insight, it includes two steps: discovering problems and solving problems. The applicable scenarios of rational analysis include the need for complex calculations, the search for optimal solutions, conflicts in solutions, and the need for legitimate reasons.
The laws and logic behind many seemingly different things are actually similar. Newton said that we must regard propositions derived from phenomena by general induction as completely correct, or very close to correct. Since there are laws and logic in things, we can improve efficiency by solving problems in a way that get to the essence quickly.
Essence refers to the fundamental properties, functions, goals, and key elements of things. For example, the essence of an enterprise is an organization that allocates resources, and the essence here refers to the fundamental attributes. The essence of group buying is to gather more consumers in order to get a lower price, and the essence here refers to the function or goal. Insight into the fundamental properties of things can be assumed by seeking common ground while reserving differences or by summarizing and abstracting. Inductive abstraction should be careful to avoid overgeneralizations or sample bias. The core of explaining the relationship between things through abductive reasoning is bold assumptions and careful verification. Careful verification can be done through thought experiments or practical experiments. The verification method we use in most cases is thought experiments.
A system is made up of a set of interconnected elements and is a whole capable of achieving a certain goal or function. Systems have goals, boundaries, features and relationships. For the system under study, determine the goals and boundaries firstly, then identify the structure of the system, and then look at the impact of changes in various elements of the system on other elements. Drawing a system cycle diagram can help us understand the relationship between system elements. When drawing a system cycle diagram, the key elements should use nouns rather than verbs. The system cycle diagram can be drawn by finding problems, causes, consequences, and loops.
When performing system analysis, factors to consider for the connection relationship include causal chains, reinforcing loops, balancing loops, and delay effects. By preparing models in advance and constantly asking questions, we can improve our system analysis capabilities. Preparing various models in advance will greatly improve our analysis capabilities when we encounter different scenarios and systems. Constantly questioning refers to continuously asking questions along the chain of cause and effect, which can help you find the origin and relationship of things.
Mastering some basic system models (archetypes) can help us improve our insight capabilities. By arranging and combining the reinforcing loop and the balancing loop of intended consequences(ic) and unintended consequences(uc) of problems, we can obtain 4 model groups:
(1) Underachievement: ic is reinforcing loop, uc is balancing loop. This group has three basic models: Tragedy of the Commons, Limits to Success, and Growth and Underinvestment.
(2) Relative Achievement: both ic and uc are reinforcing loops. It includes one basic model: Success to Successful.
(3) Out-of-control: ic is balancing loop, uc is reinforcing loop. It includes three basic models: Fixes that Fail, Shifting the Burden, and Accidental Adversaries.
(4) Relative Control: both ic and uc are balancing loops. It includes two basic models: Escalation and Drifting Goals.
From the perspective of the system, for any complex situation, there are multiple levels of explanations such as the event level, the behavior pattern level, and the system structure level. Real life is chaotic, mastering insightful methods and cross-domain knowledge can help us better solve practical problems. Independent thinking, open-mindedness, and extensive learning can help us jump out of the low-level cognitive closed loop.
References:
[1] E.F.Wolstenholme, 2003, Towards the definition and use of a Core Set of Archetypal Structures in System Dynamics
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